Despite widespread resistance, including nationwide strikes, warnings from the U.S., and market jitters that sent the Mexican peso tumbling, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, commonly known as AMLO, remains resolute in his quest to transform Mexico’s judiciary. His controversial plan, which proposes the election of federal judges, is moving forward with his Morena party leaders unveiling legislation aimed at initiating judicial elections in 2025.
As a pivotal congressional committee prepares to deliberate on the proposal, critics point to a significant yet subtle amendment in the plan as indicative of AMLO’s determined approach. The amendment defers electoral judges from facing elections until 2027, sparking concerns that it could be an effort to sway decisions regarding the composition of AMLO’s congressional coalition.
“This is highly concerning,” remarked Judge Juana Fuentes Velazquez, head of one of Mexico’s principal judicial associations, JUFED. “It seems like a reward for judges to rule favorably towards AMLO’s agenda just as they are set to make critical decisions.”
Ricardo Monreal, the Senate leader for Morena, dismissed these allegations, clarifying that the delay allows electoral judges to oversee the initial round of judicial elections, including those for the Supreme Court. “This change is purely procedural, ensuring the elections are conducted with legal certainty,” Monreal stated in a written response to Bloomberg News.
Rising Opposition
Opposition to AMLO’s judicial reform has intensified as the lower house’s constitutional affairs committee approaches an initial vote. Judges and judicial employees have initiated strikes nationwide in protest. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, issued a statement on Thursday cautioning that the reforms pose a “major risk” to democracy and could potentially facilitate organized crime infiltrating the judiciary. Canada’s ambassador echoed these concerns, noting the deep unease among investors.
The Mexican peso has plummeted by 11% since the June elections, with AMLO’s pledges to leverage Morena’s electoral gains for passing reforms contributing to the decline. The ongoing political turbulence, coupled with the unwinding of so-called carry trades, has driven the peso to its lowest levels since 2022. It is currently the worst-performing currency among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg this month.
Nevertheless, AMLO and his Morena allies remain undeterred. The president criticized Ambassador Salazar as “disrespectful,” while President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, a Morena member, labeled the strikes as illegal and dismissed investor concerns about the proposed reforms. This has placed the electoral court under intense scrutiny, as it is set to rule on several election challenges by Wednesday.
Morena and its coalition secured a supermajority in the lower house during the June elections, but fell just two seats short of a two-thirds majority in the Senate, as confirmed by the National Electoral Institute. The opposition, however, has lodged complaints alleging that Morena disguised its own candidates as members of other allied parties to circumvent constitutional limits on the number of lawmakers a single party can field.
While Morena has denied these claims, asserting that the lawmakers represent different parties, the opposition sees these challenges as a means to diminish Morena’s legislative power and hinder the reform process. A favorable ruling for Morena, however, could streamline the legislative journey for the proposed judicial overhaul.
Monreal stressed that the constitutional committee will ultimately decide the timing of judicial elections, dismissing any notions that pressure tactics could influence the electoral court’s decisions. “I know these justices personally; they are not susceptible to blackmail or pressure,” he assured reporters.
Yet, for opponents of the reform, this is seen as AMLO’s latest effort to undermine Mexican democracy. Senator Kenia Lopez urged the National Electoral Institute and the electoral court to resist government pressure, warning in a speech that capitulating to AMLO’s demands would grant Morena the power to “destroy” Mexico’s democratic institutions.
Expanded Analysis:
AMLO’s judicial reform initiative is a significant step in his broader agenda to reshape Mexico’s political landscape. While his administration has framed the proposed judicial elections as a means to democratize the judiciary, critics argue that it could compromise the independence of the courts. By enabling the election of judges, the reform could potentially allow political influence to infiltrate the judiciary, threatening the checks and balances essential to a healthy democracy.
For investors, the proposed reforms introduce a layer of uncertainty that has already impacted the Mexican peso and could have further implications for the broader market. The currency’s decline reflects growing concerns over Mexico’s political stability and the potential risks associated with AMLO’s reforms. As the situation develops, market participants will need to closely monitor the outcomes of the electoral court’s rulings and the legislative process to assess the long-term impact on Mexico’s economic landscape.
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