Wall Street is gearing up for a pivotal moment as the market approaches the quarterly “triple-witching” event, which will see approximately $5.1 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes, and ETFs expire this Friday. This event, while often overemphasized by market participants, has a history of causing unexpected price swings as traders either roll over or adjust their positions to adapt to the new landscape.
The timing of this expiration is particularly noteworthy as it arrives on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic. Despite the S&P 500 being within 1% of its all-time high, caution remains evident as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a barometer of market volatility, is still elevated above pre-July levels. This signals that investors are maintaining a degree of wariness about the Fed’s next moves.
“Triple-witching tends to inject more volatility into the market, though predicting which direction is difficult,” says Matt Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors. “The market’s view on the Fed’s rate cut will likely be amplified by the large-scale options expiration.”
The expiration coincides with the quarterly rebalancing of major indexes like the S&P 500, which adds another layer of complexity. Stocks such as Dell Technologies Inc., Erie Indemnity Co., and Palantir Technologies Inc. will be added to the S&P 500, replacing names like Etsy Inc., Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc., and American Airlines Group Inc., further intensifying trading activity.
According to Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, the bulk of options activity is concentrated around the S&P 500’s 5,500 level. Over the past few weeks, the index has hovered within 200 points of this threshold, suggesting that options-driven trading has kept the market within a narrow range. Historical data supports this, with weak seasonality playing a part—since 1990, the S&P 500 has dropped an average of 1.1% in the week following September’s triple-witching.
However, this year’s positioning could potentially favor an upside. The current ratio of open interest in call options versus put options is 4-to-1, helping the market register its best five-day stretch of the year recently. Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytics platform SpotGamma, highlights that stocks like Nvidia, which are heavily dominated by call options, could act as a catalyst for further gains. “The stock rally has eased downside hedging pressure ahead of the Fed’s meeting and the VIX expiration,” says Kochuba. “This setup allows for increased potential volatility over the next week.”
With much of Wall Street’s attention focused on options dealers who need to manage market-neutral portfolios, the risk lies in how they respond. If the S&P 500 falls below 5,600, these dealers may be forced to sell stocks to maintain their positions, which could exacerbate any downside movement.
The key question for traders is whether investors will rebuild their protective put positions amid concerns over economic growth or whether they will continue to buy into the rally, driving demand for call options.
“If the Fed’s rate cut is seen as insufficient or too late, there may be a wave of put buying, potentially dragging the market lower,” Thompson adds. “On the other hand, if the cuts are received favorably, it could support further gains in stocks.”
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